Will Coderre sweep all before him?
François Cardinal offers an excellent summary of where the three main municipal parties are now, looking ahead to an election a year away.
Polls show that Projet Montréal risks having all its hard work on policy and credibility swept aside should Denis Coderre step into municipal politics – even though he’s not a candidate, he hasn’t shown interest in municipal politics before and his views on municipal issues are unknown.
But the other two parties risk extinction as stories coming out of the Charbonneau commission ruin their reputations to the extent that they could cease to exist and new parties with different names take their places.
Jack 19:51 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
I don’t agree at one point Montrealers will catch up to a modern european vision of their city as opposed to Cleveland by the river. I know Coderre will bring some heat, but how does he play outside of Montreal North?
Kate 20:37 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
That’s the thing – we don’t know. He’s supposed to announce his plans soon and everyone seems to think it’s likely he’ll leap, but he must be asking himself what chance there is for the federal Liberals to come back within the next decade or so. People write grimly about the future of the Grits but stranger turnarounds have happened, and if in five years’ time Coderre is mayor but Justin Trudeau is prime minister, he would have his regrets.
John 20:41 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
It’s been clear for a long time he’s announcing his candidacy. Jean Lapierre keeps mentioning the spaghetti supper on November 9th.
I’m the last person willing to defend Coderre. Watching him in the LPC, I’ve always thought if he was in the room you should check the parking lot for tents – because once the clowns arrive the circus can’t be far behind.
That said, municipal politics is really different from the other levels. The arguments that you can make about Coderre are exactly the same things you could have said about Régis Labeaume in Quebec City: no prior, major involvement in municipal politics, no concept of policy, etc..
But Régis is a showman, and he knows how to use his political capital to get what he wants from the provincial and federal governments.
I think that’s an attribute that Coderre shares.
I voted for Bergeron, and I’ll probably do so again; but, if elected, I doubt he’ll be any more successful in putting Montreal front and centre on the policy priorities for our provincial government than any of our many forgettable mayors since Drapeau.
John 20:44 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
Coderre burned a lot of bridges with the Liberals when he stabbed Ignatieff in the back. He won’t lead the Liberals, and he won’t have a senior position for a long time to come.
He really has a better chance at the municipal level.
david m 22:01 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
the trick isn’t necessarily that team bergeron would be able to suck more money out of the province and feds, it’s that bergeron is extremely credible on hammering corruption, radically prioritizing quality of life issues, obstructing horrible provincial plans for the city, rebuilding the urban fabric, and just generally launching montreal from its late 1970s torpor.
when you think of all the problems we have and how dire the need for a progressive, technocratic response, it becomes chillingly apparent that a bloated old backroom bon gars like coderre is major a step backward.
ant6n 23:27 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
The city could actually make some money by engaging in good urban planning, which in turn could build the infrastructure in new areas. Just consider the Blue Bonnets (Hyppodrome?): The better the planning, and the infrastructure improvements to the area, the higher return on investment for the city (shared with Quebec).
Kate 23:31 on 2012/10/30 Permalink
John, I agree that Coderre might work in the same way Labeaume works for Quebec City – I’ve talked about this before here. I’m pretty sure if people are predisposed to Coderre right now it’s because as a personality he couldn’t be more different from Tremblay, and possibly because Labeaume has demonstrated what that stubborn chunky Napoleonic type can do. I mean, you can totally see both those men as characters in the village of irréductibles Gaulois.
david m, I agree with you too. But people like a bon gars and they may not grasp the need for a more intellectual solution. I can only hope there’s more to Coderre than spaghetti suppers.
david m 00:29 on 2012/10/31 Permalink
yeah, and even more than that, i think that cardinal is right on the money to see a shift in suburban voters most of all. i’m pretty sure that project will continue to expand its support base in the core of the city with an urban-focused campaign. but i could imagine that easily swamped as union’s base switches to the familiar face of a pre-iggz liberal party (with all the implicit trust to take care of their issues entailed in that), and some of the vision vote (such as it is) switches based on coderre’s mystifying personal popularity and decidedly ‘popular’ appeal. in a sense, his profile makes his lack program scary for the non-programmatic parties, particularly with a burgeoning backlash here. it’s depressing, i actually find myself hoping that coderre will fall on his sword somehow.
carswell 08:48 on 2012/10/31 Permalink
Was speaking with a high-ranking fonctionnaire from one of the demerged municipalities yesterday. He speculates that Tremblay is toast and knows it but won’t “retire” until after November 5 in order to avoid triggering a mayoral by-election, a strategically advantageous move for Union Montreal officials in their dealings with the Charbonneau commission. He’s also convinced that Union Montreal is a dead party walking, dashing any hopes grubbers like Applebaum may have had for a shot at the mayor’s position. Lastly, he’s skeptical about Coderre, whom he views as tainted by being a career politician, a federal politician, a Liberal and an obvious opportunist, as deprived of a natural platform by the demise of Union Montreal and as not having the wherewithal or time to develop an alternative platform on which to base his run. Not sure I agree with his entire analysis but I found it interesting.
Kate 19:38 on 2012/10/31 Permalink
Interesting stuff, carswell. Thanks for posting that.
carswell 21:02 on 2012/10/31 Permalink
On today’s Radio Noon, Bernard St-Laurent said the magic date is November 4, not the 5th. He also made no mention of a by-election but claimed that, prior to that date, Union Montreal wouldn’t be able to choose Tremblay’s “replacement” (his word, IIRC), whereas after it they would. Don’t have time to wade through the relevant acts and regulations to see who has got the details right and what the replacement’s title would be (acting mayor?).