Over on OpenFile today
I’m over on OpenFile today, with news links and a summary of the week at the Charbonneau commission, which has adjourned for the summer.
I’ve also put up a piece there on Fête nationale events and a brief piece asking, if the students were to bring down Jean Charest, who would they want in his place?
Ant6n 13:31 on 2012/06/24 Permalink
I guess the best students could hope for is a minority government, possibly of the pq, with Quebec solidaire holding the balance of power, but not the adq.
Jack 20:48 on 2012/06/24 Permalink
You know folks Charest could win the next election, in the Leger Poll last Friday he was at 38% in the Quebec City region.In a three way race that’s 10 seats.He was competitive everywhere except the North Bank of the St Lawrence.What if he wins the next election, what then?
Hamza 22:55 on 2012/06/24 Permalink
seeing as how im a little left of… everybody i know, i dislike the idea of anybody replacing jean charest but rather a more active cooperative assemblie nationale. lead by amir khadir. and without an agenda to separate.
Stefan 03:48 on 2012/06/25 Permalink
nobody seems have to polled the student demographic, so that’s hard to answer. i can well imagine that a majority would vote for QS, as the ‘old’ parties do not really seem to have answers or seem authentic for their generation (and also many other people with similar needs) – rather conserving the privileges of their clientele instead of a sustainable strategy for the long-term future? history has shown over and over again, that insatisfaction with established parties leads to votes often named as protest votes, for new or repositioned parties which need not necessarily have a well-defined plan, but rather a general vision which instills hope to get out of the current malaise.
the impact of the CAQ as new party makes it difficult to estimate seat outcomes with the majority voting model, i guess it would in general be difficult for any party to obtain a majority with so many parties.
a minority government could answer the needs of a larger percentage of the population, especially if it requires two large parties (concerning popular vote) to cooperate.
btw i follow the 308, which i find gives in-detail analysis of the current polls and also a seat-project model (not perfect, but learning from comparing with the actual results).
Jack 09:11 on 2012/06/25 Permalink
A key element that has fuelled the protest movement is the evident corruption of the Charest government and the idea that it is illegitimate. My question remains what happens if their re-elected ?My fear is that anglos-allos vote in their usual self defeating sheep like pattern, and say francos at 28% clip vote Lib……yikes.
ant6n 11:03 on 2012/06/25 Permalink
Well, maybe the parties should tone down the whole separatism thing (including QS).
Kate 12:28 on 2012/06/25 Permalink
Some things to keep in mind:
1. The Liberals won one of the recent byelections, on Montreal island too, in the midst of what some hoped was a meltdown in Charest’s popularity. Yes, they lost Argenteuil for the first time in living memory, but they still won one in LaFontaine.
2. Student-aged people by and large do not vote.
3. Pauline Marois is not exactly Mme Charisma, and she’s been waffling on her support of the student cause. She knows well that should the PQ score a victory, they would have trouble providing an unconditional tuition freeze, let alone the free tuition the students are asking for. She also is aware of my previous point – no matter how much she attempts to blandish the students, her constituency is really the older nationalist folks, hard or soft. Whether the PQ can win a majority under her rule seems doubtful to me.
4. I think the CAQ is a minor issue, but unfortunately so is QS. Quebec needs a provincial NDP, or equivalent, to mop up all the votes from people who would like to cast a leftish vote without also voting for separation, because even if separation is a long way off, lip-service for the nationalist cause eats up tax money. But we don’t have any prospect of that.
5. Here’s a thought. To win in Quebec, show us how you’d fight the damage Harper is doing to Canada – to its environment, to its culture, to its international reputation. Quebec is a distinct society? Yes – but show us what makes us distinctively better.
My prediction, alas, is that if Charest calls a fall election he will win, not resoundingly, but he will win. The best outcome we can get will be a minority Liberal government.
Isabelofmtl 15:19 on 2012/06/25 Permalink
I fully agree that we need a federalist alternative to the liberals, such as a provincial ndp. Half of quebekers are not interested in separating, but we’re stuck with only one federalist option. Makes no sense!